Month: July 2025

It was a while ago, but I learned some lessons about over-betting an average hand like Big Slick/Kornikova (Ace-King) because once people you play with regularly know your ‘tell,’ you’re going to get spanked often and badly. For trump it was TACO tag, for snobby Major Winchester it was humming louder when he had a sucko hand.

For about eight years, maybe ten guys from work, even two tables, would go to Rich Luda’s place for monthly Hold ’em tournaments. It was a $50 buy-in, usually paid down to third place. Bring your own beer, Rich was a terrific host with cigars, somebody usually had a joint, and the chop busting was non-stop. With re-buys and such for 16, winners usually got a trophy and $400+.

I had the dubious distinction of being first out a number of times, and while I gifted my brother one cool Tournament Donkey spinner I’d earned, I still have a pewter donkey. One of my exits was epic – having painted my face multiple colors to match a wild golf shirt, I went all-in early with a guy who had a pair of 5s under to go with a rainbow board that had another; I had a pair of jacks or so. NOBODY fails to get a laugh using the line, “It took Shorkey longer to paint his face than he got to play!” including last month, a decade or more later.

For those who don’t know what a Kornikova is, Anna was an extremely attractive tennis player who didn’t win much. The spinner had a donkey in sniper-telescope crosshairs, the rip being all its good for is to bring a load of $$$, then it gets plugged. Get it?

TACO, tariffs, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney

The TACO (trump always chickens out) tag will never go away, despite his usual bully tactic of doubling down when wrong, trying to buy the pot in poker terms. The expectation is others will lay hands down instead of gambling everything on sticking it to a known bluffer-‘chip bully.’ trump counted on Canada retreating to little brother status because of long-term, well-integrated economies and that politeness thing. The US was the only super-power left (well, China), and the proverbial final straw was slapping tariffs on Canada despite all that good history.

For the record, I’m of Canadian ancestry, five-six generations from when several groups migrated south into Vermont. I’ve never lacked for confidence about that, and it never gets guessed. Canadians politeness is part of a national identity, which Daily Show host Jon Stewart characterized as ‘the friendly golden Labradoodle of nations,’ and most often was taken for granted by US (but always, thanks for getting our embassy people out of Iran during hostage situation).

Everyone’s worried about the southern border with Mexico, the 5,525 mile (8,891 kilometers), 13 states-8 provinces border with Canada, no problem, eh?

Like trump said numerous times – memorably in his/JD Vance’s televised ambush-WWE tag team of Ukraine’s leader Zelenskyy in a White House meeting – about not having good cards, came with hard suggestions he sue for peace with Russia.

Now, if you have that lowly pair of 5s and instead of one, TWO more come up , it behooves you to just shut up and bet, which is what happened in the picture at top. Not always LEAD the betting, maybe act a little bit confused about why you’re still in if you want, but with my previous reputation for over-betting, other guy at end was a non-believer (and big loser).

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is a Liberal, although more importantly, a trained economist, with a seven-year term as Governor of Bank of England (Mexican Presidente https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claudia_Sheinbaum is a documented Real Deal, and was rated the 4th most powerful Woman in the world by Forbes in 2024, another negotiation trump will try to survive), but until the last part of the most recent Canadian elections in March, the Liberals were not expected to take the reins of government. Having seen the chaos of trump’s ham-handed screwing of *everyone* because he felt he could expand beyond Democrats and immigrants, Canadian voters abandoned a Conservative candidate with trumpie leanings, electing Carney in March, 2025.

Carney quietly put the brakes on the relationship where USA always got the bigger piece of cake.

No angry texts, no worried negotiations, just the knowledge Canada didn’t have to react like trump expected, and like the European Union also discovered, actions need to have consequences. The Repubs in Congress have consistently backed down in fear of trump’s frequent threat (and actually hammering) to involve those who didn’t kow tow in expensive primary challenges. PM Carney took Canada to into well-known hockey mode, going into corners with ‘elbows up’ attitude, meaning someone (like trump) expecting to hammer an opponent into the glass might get a lot less desirable face full of payback instead.

So here America is, not first, more like alone

There’s not going to be an easy resolution, mostly because trump has ALWAYS been the sort who would burn something to the ground vs. back off. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLeaif6hyYs. There’s a sh*t ton of background from that in America’s recent past, especially the 2020 elections, where trump and his minions litigated and carped about ill-defined elements of the defeat for four years, based entirely on his ego.

The European Union, seeing Russia’s brutal three year war of attrition with Ukraine as a repeat of WWII situation with Hitler’s Germany, and with too many memories undampened by 80 years passing and appeasement then being useless, has supplied a huge amount of material and $$$, since Putin’s invasion. The EU made the decision – as did US President Joe Biden – that providing Ukraine with the essential means to hold off the much larger Russian army meant they were stopping their own countries from devastation, again for European nations.

In 2025, the EU isn’t blinded by what American troops did ‘back then’ to liberate Europe https://www.abmc.gov/cemeteries-memorials/about-henri-chapelle-american-cemetery/; they also decided not to expect anything positive from trump dissing NATO and being way too friendly toward Putin’s Russia. No tariffs?! and stopping advanced weaponry, even logistical satellite information so Ukraine wasn’t getting early warning of what Russians were doing before major attacks, was a negative result.

PM Carney and certain spokespeople have made it absolutely clear – We still love Americans! – but their collective citizens, to the greatest possible degree, have cut *every*single*possible*economic*tie* to their running amok southern neighbor. In 100% middle-digit-extended response to trump alone, they have ceased going to Florida for beaches and sunshine, nor bought Kentucky bourbon, and everyone concerned knew why. In watching the above youtube and others, its easy to see trump isn’t going to gaslight CANADA into doing his warped bidding. They are now being recognized as a senior level partner at the international level, stepping out from shadow of the United States now, more younger and Reacher’d up little brother who doesn’t get picked last any more.

Way different economics, elbows up on bullies

Several countries who always bought military equipment from US have cancelled orders, and the Swedes have a multi role-fighter jet (Saab JAS 39 Gripen) that’s pretty hot stuff as an alternative; the French Dassault Rafale is considered one of the most advanced and capable warplanes in the world. All the $$$ Canada gave to US defense contractors over decades has been essentially turned off. Cutting off exports of Canadian steel (screw tariffs! ZERO, not just more expensive) was their version of applying a definitive ‘face wash’ (rubbing a hockey glove in other players face during melees), into Detroit’s car manufacturing.

Next years World Cup soccer, designed to include Mexico, Canada, US sites, might be significantly less well attended in US, based on ugly attitudes and documented problems by visitors who risk getting harassed with negatives/denied entry because there were unfavorable text messages about trump on personal phones. Will ICE be at stadiums, checking dark-haired customers coming from Jersey or Texas? Uncool, and if you haven’t already bought tickets…

How many times did Winchester from MASH and I get whacked when people knew our tells? I’m chuckling at fact NOBODY with anything decent folded because I raised the big blind from $200 to $500, at least paid until they saw a flop. My version of TACO, reducing my big betting when I still only had a Kornikova, was a signal they punished me regularly for, raising all around the table, and I wasn’t always smart enough to drop out with zip. They knew I was weak, more Tournament Donkey bringing the $$$ than someone who was about to deliver the boom!

trump tore up North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis recently because he openly stated there was no way he (Tillis) could vote for trump’s Bad Billionaire Bill knowing it was a load of nasty for his 663,000 constituents on Medicare/Medicaid (yo!) A normally valuable ally in politically purple North Carolina, Tillis stated he wouldn’t run for re-election in 2026, and *many* people told trump it was a mistake to strongly diss a usually strong ally when it mangles the Congressional battle map with a retirement.

Poker-wise, you might get that last necessary card- like a fourth 5 – on the river, a big surprise when it happens. Sometimes, as trump has learned, you shouldn’t try and snake someone 50% in the corners just because you can. When they’ve got the elbows up, its very possible you’ll get a mouthful of payback instead, eh?