Six reasons (beside Rhule’s history) to keep a positive vision on 2022, the QB ‘upgrade,’ as Panthers get Mayfield cheap

Baker Mayfield will continue to be a MAJOR source of interest in Charlotte, now that Positive Reason #1, Panthers GM Scott Fitterer, has fixed their QB situation, again. Props to Baker for converting a manly chunk of guaranteed salary into incentive pay, its what moved the needle. Cam is *definitely* off the board.

Walking to the terrific Queens University campus is less than a mile, and its truly a jewel in Charlotte’s crown. It was an idyllic 4th of July, with a car parade, and young families – Yo! Nick Savarino with three little ones – pouring in from all directions.

Another under-loved QB comes to Charlotte

I actually cheered when Matt Stafford got out of Detroit last year. Stafford seemed like a good player whose Lions always lost, wasn’t going anywhere (but years he would never forget, as per his phone commercial). Then the Rams asked what it would take to replace Jared Goff with him, and it paid off in a Super Bowl win, as Stafford got good ball to all their receivers.

Fitterer brought Sam Darnold to Charlotte last year after three poor seasons with Jets, under nearly the same circumstances as Mayfield’s deal. Less draft capital (a conditional #5) spent, and Mayfield doesn’t have the $18.85MM option tag fans have opined about Mr. Tepper picking up too quickly (though in line with CBA). He also pulled a 3rd round pick out of his hat to get Mississippi QB Matt Corral this year.

Lets hope Mayfield brings a real chip on shoulder attitude regarding nobody wanting him for $18 million. Darnold beat his old Jets to start last year, but Baker hanging a quantity of whupa** (300 yards, 3 TDs enough?) on Cleveland to start 2022 season will have fans singing ‘Sweet Caroline’ SO GOODs! for him.

Mayfield keeping DJMoore, McCaffrey, Robbie Anderson et al happy with distribution like Stafford’s would be a darn good first step. “Super Bowl” shouldn’t pass anyone’s lips.

–Me, and IMHO, minimum number of Ws for Rhule’s Rule on ‘major 3rd year improvement’ should be nine wins. It’s still Tepper’s $$$.

CMC is *always* open, or just turning and give the rock to him is legitimate. There’s a TOTALLY new O-line, $$$ well-spent, including local product Ikem Ekwonu, the stud OLT Panthers have missed forever, props to Jordan Gross. Podcaster Colin Cowherd feels Baker could be best QB in the division soon, because they’ll give him every chance to produce- and Brady has to retire sometime.

BIG Reason #2 – Christian McCaffrey

As noted in his Panther bio:

Despite only playing seven games in 2021 due to injury, Christian McCaffrey became the fastest player to reach 3,000 receiving yards and 3,000 rushing yards in NFL history, doing it in his first 57 career games.

Christian McCaffrey is a documented high-achiever, and he’s ready to tear it up again, after most of two years on the shelf (99 carries/442 yds./1 TD in 2021). Its difficult to judge whether he made the Panthers offensive line look better than it was with the 1000 yards rushing and receiving year, but that’s kind of the standard he’ll be looking at. Running behind a much improved O-line should be gratifying to all.

Yes, “staying healthy” often comes up, but stop that noise about wearing out/breaking CMC now. Long-time Panther linebacker Thomas Davis https://www.panthers.com/team/players-roster/thomas-davis/ had knee surgeries that would have ended many careers, and he had 14 seasons of thrills to his credit.

Anyone who thought McCaffrey was trade bait for DeSean Watson trade was nuts. HE sure didn’t like riding the bench, wasn’t given the choice.

#3 – How much better can Defense be?

Lets make two things clear- the Panthers D was #2 in the league, allowed 305 yards/game – giving up 23.8 points was 21st (of 32). The cupboard clearly isn’t bare on that side of the ball, and Defensive Coordinator Phil Snow isn’t riding on reputation at 67. https://www.panthers.com/news/phil-snow-excited-by-all-his-new-options Some pretty solid flag planting was done last year, 36 sacks, coming from a bottom three in league ranking in nearly every category the year before Snow arrived.

JEREMY CHINN is a bright and effective weapon wherever he lines up, Jaycee Horne has lots of peoples attention, coming back from a broken foot. Burns, Brown, Shaq Thompson, several free agent signings, the squad has risen from road kill to quite respectable. Hasson Riddick’s 11.5 sacks/12 tackles for loss/18 QB hits is a free agent loss (3 yr./$45MM with Eagles), but what comes out of Spartanburg should thrill fans often.

In a division with The GOAT (Brady), Atlanta and the Saints look vulnerable at QB – Panthers won’t fear Jameis Winston at the controls. If/when the defense stops giving up short scoring drives and the offense puts points on board (17.9ppg, 29th) vs. three and outs, those sacks become more important. It would still be better if ‘Action’ Jackson used speed to tip balls away vs. whacking receivers immediately after catches.

#4 – Baker Mayfield – Size of fight in the dog

They used to respect a guy being gutsy, playing through injury, and that obviously cost Baker with stats. Brownies bet the franchise on Deshaun Watson, he was out on salary, not Good Baker-Bad Baker performance. He lit things up with 26 TD-8 INT season and a playoff win against arch-rival Pittsburgh the year before.

7/6/22 – Me, okay with Baker Mayfield (and McCaffrey) playing with chips on their shoulder this year.

The first time he throws a 60 yard rainbow to the flag that DJ Moore comes down with, I won’t be the only Panther fan to spit my beer in joy. Cam NEVER had that throw.

STATS don’t tell the story of fight in the dog analogies, and his history of Attitude-talent, bouncing from Texas Tech to OK and a national championship and Heisman is well known. As with Cam and Darnold, all that sort of gets baked into the way we’ll be looking at results. The first time he throws a 60 yard rainbow to the flag that DJ Moore comes down with, I will spit my beer in joy. Cam NEVER had that throw.

New Offensive Coordinator Ben McAdoo’s teams in NY were run-oriented, but CMC is going to be a huge pain for linebackers on all the check down passes he’ll get. *Maybe* they’ll even throw it to Hubbard if they lighten CMC’s reps. Nobody wants him or DJ Moore out in space – tough to get on the ground.

#5 OFFENSIVE LINE, Especially OT Ikem Ekwonu

The Panthers are back in Spartanburg, SC after a new practice facility-headquarters deal in Rock Hill blew up. In 2018, the heat index was brutal at 10 a.m., most spectators wisely in minimal shade.

There was rejoicing all around with the ‘local boy makes good’ choice of Ekwonu, a Providence Day (Charlotte) grad who played collegiately at North Carolina State. At 6’4″, 320 pounds, he’s the epitome of protecting a quarterbacks blind side, and wowed! all with pancake blocks on a regular basis. https://cdtalententerprises.com/2022/03/25/panthers-6-pick-cant-fill-two-major-needs-so-7-ideas-for-gm-fitterer-to-consider-along-the-way/

Taylor Moton was considered an underachiever in Year 2, but he’s a stud at 28 now, all right? One of five players in league to play every snap the last four years. Got the contract extension last year to prove it. Christiansen will apparently get his shot at LG, and along with several solid free agent signings, Panthers will now have depth to run OC McAdoo’s run-oriented offense, after years of moving players all over when injuries occurred.

There’s some evidence that the line which was good enough to help McCaffrey get that rare 1000-1000, might have hidden some blemishes.

The difference McCaffrey makes to an offensive line is elemental, his ability to go long is inspirational – hold your block that fraction of a second and CMC could be checking his style on the big screen for last ten yards of a score. While previous OC Joe Brady’s offensive scheme didn’t impress the NFL, McAdoo has Moton and Ikem where he wants them, and James Campen is a well regarded line coach. https://www.panthers.com/news/panthers-adding-james-campen-offensive-line-coach

#6 Winning cures Everything

Perhaps its a little easier to understand how losing organizations fans are somehow cheered by the start of another year. Stafford would be a poster child for that – Detroit always felt if they got a few more quality players (a few? sorry…) they could be competitive, because they had an above average QB. That Charlotte, after a pair of 5 win seasons, smells that same air is encouraging.

In the 2015-16 Super Bowl year, fans here reallllly weren’t believing getting there was possible, not until they mauled Dallas 33-14 on Thanksgiving to get to 10-0. They also thought they’d been Carolina nice enough to Darnold to get him thinking-playing righter down here, so adding even a definitely better QB isn’t going to move a lot of needles. Just sayin’.

Its way too early for any kind of projection, although my suspicion about nine wins earns Rhule his contract is a flag in the sand. Tepper decided not to cut bait OR fish on an $800 million Rock Hill HQ, but eating the last years of Rhule’s contract if he’s found wanting in victories/growth doesn’t seem likely to be necessary. Neither will any further discussion of Cam somehow getting a spot on even a 90-man roster in Charlotte.

Panthers #6 pick can’t fill two major needs, so 7 Ideas for GM Fitterer to consider along the way

Without burying the lead, but with a quantity of tongue in cheek, the answer is Testaverde. They wouldn’t owe anyone compensation picks.

Just kidding, a bit of shock therapy there. Its Kaepernick.

Every Panther fan, in fact the NFL WORLD knows how desperately the Carolina Panthers want-need an alpha-type leader as a quarterback. Sound of mind and limb (letting Cam out the side door easily with that criteria), able to hand the ball to McCaffrey regularly, and throw some long TDs to the now properly taken care of contract-wise DJ Moore.

With the DeShaun Watson dalliance settled after his trade to Cleveland (!?), and nobody experts project as a franchise QB in the draft, that #6 should mean General Manager Scott Fitterer grabs a documented and undeniably sturdy OLT (offensive left tackle) to settle an obvious long term line problem.

Names are circulating, but if you’ve heard the Panthers might select a stud edge rusher, that’s what they call ‘smoke.’

Highly Motivated – Absolutely!

Are Kaep’s skills anywhere near NFL levels after years (post 2016) wandering in the relative desert, essentially black-listed for his kneeling as a silent message about constant shooting-killing of young black men by white cops across America? Held to the light of retreads (Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick) who have gotten opportunities elsewhere, is he at all a consideration?

Just in case you didn’t know, Kaep and the Panthers passed this way before, in 2019. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1z2kBAO5yI

While it would have to be one HELL of a workout to make such a bet-the-franchise move, when options include Cam and the un-good performance of Darnold over his first ten games, Baker Mayfield sure isn’t a more logical answer than Kaepernick.

You wouldn’t keep the lid on a workout with professional route runners Kaep says he’d like to throw to (Panthers have several), some PR circus would accompany it – Cleveland is getting a ration of negativity for bringing Watson in – but that isn’t Panthers problem. Would they have to make a huge offer to satisfy some sense of ‘worth’ after so long, or just put together a ‘Make Good’ incentive package (Wins? 4000 yards, Comeback Player of Year?) that puts him in camp and working full time on his skills?

Cam’s haberdashery and previous community efforts shouldn’t and won’t count in further discussions.

‘Make good’ sounds like a winner, and its doubtful Mr. Tepper pays prime $$$ for another stop gap QB. Like many teams, when you’re down, it behooves looking at all options, and Panthers continue to sign positional players. If Coach Rhule can’t turn a former Temple player like PJ Walker into the starter, Darnold is signed for $18MM, and Rodgers got $200MM to stay in Green Bay, Fitterer will have some leeway on a contract.

#2 – Sam Darnold

Okay, this isn’t Sam Darnold by any stretch of imagination, but would he be more likeable if he dressed like Cam?

Charlotte fans were willing to believe some good loving after three years in New York would cure the former #3 overall pick of all his demons, yet with an easy, 25th place schedule, his ability to throw the long ball, and a plethora of offensive options, he indeed under-performed in 2021.

How much blame for that goes with exiled Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady, whose LSU superstars (Joe Burrow, 4 receivers, RBs) blowing away college secondaries got him the job but didn’t seem to faze many pros, is open to discussion.

FYI – Panthers will be playing the 12th toughest schedule this year. https://www.panthers.com/news/carolina-panthers-2022-opponents-are-set

Yes, Darnold looks like a weak link, and whether anyone could fail while having CMC to hand off to (please, please!) or to drop swing passes he lugs 18 yards or so, we may never know. In gallows humor, if the Panthers can’t somehow package him in a trade, at least he isn’t the $40MM dead money salary cap hit former Falcon Matt Ryan’s team was willing to take by shoving him at the Colts.

Darnold looks like a weak link, but at least he isn’t wearing a massive, albatross level $40MM dead money salary cap hit former Falcon Matt Ryan’s team was willing to take.

FYI – An albatross has nearly a 10 foot wing span, and is considered an insult when its meant as a psychological burden that feels like a curse. In Rime of the Ancient Mariner  (Coleridge,1798), as bad luck (becalmed) continues, the ships crew blame their misfortunes on the mariner killing an albatross, which is hung from the his neck to signify the mariner’s culpability in cursing the ship.

Sam Darnold is not the unwieldy burden Ryan’s $40 million cap hit is.

Jury is out on Coach Rhule – Year 3

Ending pursuit of Watson means the Panthers will be able to keep many of their really good pieces, which includes a defense that’s regained a place in the middle of the pack compared to previous bottom three in most categories. Jeremy Chinn, Derek Brown, and edge rusher-mayhem maker Brian Burns are part of that cadre. Donte Jackson would belong in that category if he used that speed to *stop* receptions instead of laying a lick on receivers immediately after the catch.

Whether every former player (Temple, Baylor) of Rhule’s that comes to Panthers is an automatic best choice, Fitterer is a known and respected quantity as a trader. It seemed like a gaping hole had been fixed with his initial signing of Darnold, but he’ll be essential in continuing to bring in possibilities. https://cdtalententerprises.com/2021/04/09/panthers-take-care-of-business-gm-fitterer-lands-qb-darnold-to-get-rolling/

Coaches are hired to be fired, and the NFL landscape is littered with unsuccessful college transitions. If Rhule still has any reason to be thankful the last Thursday in November, so will a lot of Panther fans. Tepper’s new futbol team, Charlotte FC, came out of the gate with a record-breaking home crowd of over 75,000. https://www.charlottefootballclub.com/video/miguel-ramirez-talks-match-against-fc-cincinnati-first-win#miguel-ramirez-talks-match-against-fc-cincinnati-first-win. Success there doesn’t mean he’d be at all happy with a Panthers team that puts up less than a serious playoff-level season.

The Panthers Defense is up to Snuff

Two drafts ago the Panthers used all seven picks on defense, and Phil Snow came in with Rhule from Baylor as Defensive Coordinator. Last year their #1 pick was Jaycee Horn, who didn’t play after week three with a broken foot. Chinn-Horn could become a bona fide lock-down duo, the D moved to middle of pack, and while early raves for doing well against three weak teams to start weren’t reality, the Panther defense finished strong (36 sacks) by many metrics. https://www.catscratchreader.com/2022/1/19/22888030/final-2021-ratings-for-the-panthers-defense-per-pro-football-focus.

In all the messaging from Houston about Watson, it seemed like draft picks, help for the Texan defense, and even McCaffrey, were thought possibilities to go in the pot, so losing defensive progress would’ve replaced QB as a challenge.

Burns is an actual stud, this could well be his blossom year. Will speed rusher be the greatest necessity in draft? Highly doubtful.

McCaffrey Silences the Doubters

To say “It is what it is” about Christian McCaffrey’s two year holding pattern is almost legitimate, but if Kaepernick would be well motivated, CMC is a documented over-achiever https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/panthers-restructure-christian-mccaffreys-contract-reportedly-clear-up-5-5-million-in-cap-space/ Charlotte has paid for the best of what comes next, McCaffrey restructured that $21.5 MM bonus contract so many talk about, so you’ll see how he feels about being sidelined for most of two years.

At NO point should anyone be linking his name as trade bait. He might have made the offensive line look better than it was up until then, but great players elevate the play of those around them. Believing a block held an extra part of a second might mean McCaffrey breaks a big one fires a team up. The Buccaneers have Tom Brady back, you KNOW the belief he instills as The GOAT. Don’t sweat that the Panthers have worn CMC out by overuse, he is coming loaded for payback.

#6 – The McAdoo Offense

Perhaps there are doubts about getting anything from the Giants, but if the Panthers new offensive coordinator gets the benefit of salary cap funds (about $29MM, as noted) going into the offensive line instead of switching parts around every time someone gets injured, that would be progress. Fitterer doing anything except trading down a couple spots while still getting that stud OLT isn’t going to happen.

Just WHO is going to run *any* offense will be the primary question. Kaep is 34 now, he hasn’t taken a beating in a while, so it’s not a hard thirty-four, and he’s as worthy of being talked about as anyone. The NFL has mostly given up the RPO (run-pass option) that Cam, Russ, RPG III, and several others did well with early, because defensive coordinators quickly decided whacking the QB on every play would make teams leery of putting high value QBs health on the line.

Offensive line play WILL improve, and not getting Watson to Charlotte means lots of other people get paid. DJ Moore is on track to game-breaker status, but only if Panthers QB (Kaepernick?) has time, with ability to move around when necessary. Giants O-lines always had a reputation for grinding power game, Chubba and CMC will be able to work with that, and yes, long balls to Moore/Anderson should be expected.

Using tight ends for blocking may be necessary, more satisfying would be Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas evolving into ninja-level receivers, if watching Greg Olsen tape can be converted to productive pattern running.

#7 – Year 3 of Rhule doesn’t make us Detroit

Detroit allowed Matt Millen to single-handedly wreck the franchise (31-97) over eight years as CEO/team president, a job his linebacking career didn’t prepare him for at all. GM Scott Fitterer doesn’t have such limitations, and he’s at the controls. The necessary help is mostly on the way. Colin Kaepernick, we’ll see how that rolls.

With all due respect to Matt Stafford for escaping 12 years of servitude in Detroit and using his super arm to take Rams to a winning Super Bowl – or the end of the Baker Mayfield run in Cleveland with Watson’s arrival – four years of sub-standard football is enough for Tepper (and fans). Yes, a $62MM coach should do better than 10-23, even if not having an inspirational QB or stud running back sounds legitimate.

That delay with new headquarters in Rock Hill aside, Mr. Tepper has staked out quite a few successful operations in his time as an owner. If Coach Rhule’s leadership of 2022 team is regarded as a serious mistake at Thanksgiving, that would be cause for specific change.

Still plenty of room on Darnold-Panthers bandwagon, Fitterer and 11-6 a franchise reset

I *guarantee* any of the faithful watching practice tried to find shelter fast in Spartanburg. If you’ve been there, you know the deal.

Nobody seems to doubt the Panthers will have plenty of offensive firepower in 2021. The “and if” part in many projections for their season was getting a high caliber QB to run it. Fans will get more solid evidence that GM Scott Fitterer did pretty good with his first real important job, on Sunday in Indianapolis.

Sam Darnold, former NY Jet – I won’t use that term often any more, he’s the Panthers QB, no ifs, ands, or buts now – was said to look good in practice last week, so here we go! Its certainly nothing like the fanfare that accompanied #1 pick Cam Newton’s arrival in Charlotte in 2011, off a national championship at Auburn for him and a 1-15 season in Charlotte.

Former Panther coach Ron Rivera always said things became more real once the pads went on, and there you have it in a nutshell. Unloved where he was, Darnold is a talented player getting a muuuccch better second opportunity to prove his worth to us fannies will be the train to ride. He can’t nail a 300-yard night during two practices with Colts, and will probably only see a half of game action, so any attaboys! finally being uttered now, I’m sure he’ll accept them.

Any bigger picture decision about Fitterer’s genius will have to wait a little longer, https://cdtalententerprises.com/2021/04/09/panthers-take-care-of-business-gm-fitterer-lands-qb-darnold-to-get-rolling/ but $30 million in cap space has plugged quite a few holes with free agents.

Consider 11-6 season a Panthers reboot

This will be an absolute turnaround season for the franchise, and opposing defenses should buckle it on tight after a highly movitated Christian McCaffrey (C-MC, some say CeeMac) comes out of the gate with maybe 150 yds./2 TDs on the Jets. Receivers Robbie Anderson and DJ Moore were the #3 production duo in NFL, and while two of FOUR Panthers not named McCaffrey who gained over 1,000 yards from scrimmage are gone (RB M.Davis, WR C.Samuel), there will be plenty of #22 jerseys in the stands cheering his return.

Valuable Replacements

Valuable replacement for Curtis Samuel (to Washington, 3 yr/$34.5M) NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund pegged Terrance Marshall, Jr. as Top 5 pick to lead rookie receivers this year.

At 6’2″, 200 lbs., he’s the same size as Panther great Mushin Muhammad, as a #3 receiver, he’ll get 1-1 coverage because of Moore and Anderson.

For those who haven’t already forgotten Greg Olsen and his ‘ninja skills,’ suddenly appearing downfield to catch a clutch first down pass, management has signed 6’6″ Dan Arnold (Arizona) to a 2 year/$6M contract. That’s just in case Darnold can’t find a receiver anywhere else, there should a large security blanket-level target pretty much in front of his eyes.

Ask ex-Panther Jimmy Clausen why they couldn’t find a good pass-catching tight end when he was blitzed mercilessly the year before Cam Newton got a pair of stud TEs (Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen), or just accept they saw a need and took care of it.

The ‘Madden’ version of McCaffrey is redonkulous, his reality and quality equally so. Offensive lines LOVE working for someone with the ability to go house if you hold your block another fraction of a second.

Defense – Another Big Leap?

In Year Two of Phil Snow as the Panthers Defensive Coordinator, expectations for another rise in the rankings – from bottom three in all categories to 18th overall in points and total yardage in 2020 – are legitimate. It’s taken three seasons of iffy improvement to get here, and last year was still the worst defense in franchise history on 3rd down (allowed 49.2% conversion) and INTs with 7.

With #1 pick Jaycee Horn a large, very physical cornerback, getting off the field on 3rd down will be enhanced.

The all-defensive draft last year looks like gold now, especially trading up to have a second-second round pick that became Jeremy Chinn. https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4043169/jeremy-chinn The Panthers defense led the league in recovered fumbles (15) and scored 3 touchdowns, two by Chinn on back-back plays. As for the mere 29 total sacks, Brian Burns (9) is looking to blow up at whatever they’ll call his position – speed rusher is accurate – and is the epitome of ‘Mobile, Agile, Hostile’.

The all-defensive draft last year looks like gold now, especially trading up to have a second-second round pick that became Jeremy Chinn.

Top factors to assess 2021 defense will be sacks, and turnovers will be emphasized. A couple times off the field with a stop on 3rd down becoming more opportunities for a potent offense will obviously make a difference. Turnovers always follow aggressive play calling, and adding a number of free agents (DT DaQuan Jones, LB Denzel Perryman, DE Haason Reddick) with that element is a real boost.

Reddick had 12.5 sacks for Arizona last year, plus 16 QB hits, 6 forced fumbles, 15 tackles for loss, and THAT will get a defense off the field sooner. He’ll play the opposite side from Burns, and Phil Snow must be licking his chops to have such a major upgrade. Jones played all 16 games 5 of 6 years for the Titans, and if not a big sack guy, Perryman is a documented run stuffer, and his range is clearly better than Tahir Whitehead, even if nobody will be going sideline-sideline like Luuuuuke!

DIVISION – NFC South

That Tom Brady took the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl victory in his first year away from New England isn’t lost on anyone in the division, where Panthers will see The GOAT twice a year. Drew Brees is gone, and while fans have waited a long time to see ‘Swiss Army Knife’ QB Taysom Hill – who has done everything for the Saints while Brees continued amazing – “we’ll see” is legitimate. If there’s a QB battle with Jameis Winston, something is wrong in the Dome.

Atlanta remains an arch-rival, and they picked up another stud receiver (TE Kyle Pitts, Florida), whose 4 yr./$32.9M contract is fully guaranteed. Matt Ryan is still slinging it there, and all division games count extra, so whether the secondary is good enough to hold up while the D-line goes after him will be the key, he’s never been called elusive.

There probably isn’t a defensive scheme Brady hasn’t seen, Ryan still has skills and blazing fast receivers, but any post-Brees letdown in New Orleans would be appreciated.

Wrap it up, we’ll take it

While Robbie Anderson isn’t a fan of the new turf in BOA stadium (‘its fake’), the stadium allows far too many other events to keep regular grass viable, so while it will be very different here, its not a totally strange surface either. Expecting someone like McCaffrey and Moore, who can turn on a dime, to take advantage of always good footing is not to be underestimated.

Joey Slye had a 120 point season (29 FGs, 33 PATs), his only drawback being 1-6 from over 50 yards.

Everyone loved Jeremy Chinn‘s contributions last year, switching between OLB and safety. Adding Denzel Perryman will probably allow Snow to keep Chinn at safety, but there will certainly be sneak attacks from the versatile Chinn to keep Ryan and Brady aware of his presence. (The rest of the NFL will learn about it too.)

There was an idea that Panthers would lose a couple shootouts in 2020, that possibility has gone down with an improved QB and a strong off-season of plugging holes with free agency as a result of $30 million in cap space.

Panthers play the NFC East and most of AFC East (total 8 games), with Eagles, Vikes, Pats, and Washington at home, the Bills and Miami on the road, and finish the season with Bucs-Saints-Bucs. They should be in contention for winning the conference all the way to the end – their strength of schedule is rated as 26th (of 32 teams, 5th easiest), which helps me stick with an 11-6 prediction.

Panthers ugly 2019 ends with questions on broken D, head coach, Olsen, Cam

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There won’t be any pilgrimages to Wofford in 2020, but the fans will still be faithful.

Here in “The Buckle on the Bible Belt,” its quite possible that more than a couple fans put some time into praying that Christian McCaffrey didn’t get hurt, especially during the eight loss spiral that ended in a soggy 42-10 whipping by the Saints at BOA Stadium.

Color commentators often opine that defensive backs best assets are speed and having a short memory about negative plays, and if a belated Christmas or Hanukkah gift could be given out to end the year, may Charlotte be so blessed memory-wise.

There was a whole lot of ugly going on after Kyle Allen started throwing INTs and the defense showed they couldn’t stop anyone, and not replaying it all is legitimate. Yes, it was smile-worthy that McCaffrey became only the third player in NFL history to post 1,000 yards-plus rushing and receiving, and Moore seems to have arrived as a premier receiver in only his second year ranked 9th, with 87 catches, 1,175 yards and four TDs.

As a two-time Coach of the Year, Ron Rivera will probably find another job in the NFL (Redskins?), although except for the 15-1 regular season the Panthers posted in their 2015 Super Bowl season, he wouldn’t be the franchise’s career leader in victories at 76-63-1.

Rivera arrived the same year as Cam Newton, and defensive bulwark Luke Kuechly became an instant star at middle linebacker the next year, but good luck to him working any instant magic for the 3-13 ‘Skins owner Daniel Snyder.

Do NOT expect many of the Panthers coaching staff to remain in Charlotte. While owner David Tepper gave Rivera an above average amount of rope during a second straight year of defensive under-achieving, he’s not going to let that become the sort of malaise that infects Detroit, Cleveland, or Cincinnati. How Cam Newton’s status looks after a bad shoulder (2018) and foot (missed all but first two games of 2019) injuries is an especially big question for fans this winter, and Allen’s turnover woes (16 INTs, 13 fumbles) don’t come across as the answer in the QB arena.

Is it really the thought that counts this time of year?

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Having given a brother several bags of mulch and some pea gravel – along with a promise to render his front garden area more presentable – and the roof of his house being done just before Christmas, the analogy of the back yard being a mess *right now* is a legitimate one for the Panthers.

The Carolina Panthers weren’t the worst at anything, although the 470 (29.4 ppg) points they surrendered was ahead of only the Dolphins (494, 30.9 ppg). The 143.5 average they were gouged for on the ground beat only Cleveland (144.7), Washington, and Cincinnati’s (2-14) bottom of the list 148.9. That made their 3,696 (231 yds. per game) by air look comparatively lofty, with 19 teams – including 12-4 division winner New Orleans (3,868) – behind them.

While that only proves numbers aren’t always the whole story, especially in a pass-happy league, the Panthers were pushed around plenty, with runners consistently picking up necessary first down yardage. McCaffrey was third in rushing with 1,387 yards and 15 TDs (287 carries) plus 1,005 receiving (4 TDs); Derrick Henry (TN) won the rushing title with 1,540 (16 TDs, 303 carries).

Although many fans, especially in the Carolinas, would consider C-MC’s efforts worthy of MVP consideration, his exploits the second half of the year were almost a curiosity to the rest of the country, though his 116 receptions and productivity were crucial to fantasy owners. Nobody doubted he gave his best effort every week, even when defenses were often stacked to stop his contributions along the way.

Mr. Tepper isn’t Yoda, but fix things he must

The Panthers boss man not only put his considerable $$$ where his mouth is while buying the Panthers at the beginning of 2018, he’s also added an indoor practice facility and a major league soccer franchise ($325 million), while targeting a rejuvenation of the former Eastland Mall area off Central Avenue with a practice facility and team offices for the soccer franchise. That goes beyond good thoughts, but fixing a great many lagging factors before their 26th season is uppermost on Panthers fans minds.

Recently released lesser performers like Gruden (Redskins), Kitchens (Browns), Shurmer (NYG) and the like will probably not be of interest to Tepper as a head coach, but former Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy’s success makes him a possibility, along with a list of high profile college coaches. McCarthy apparently also wanted the GM role when he was considered for the Browns job, but Marty Hurney has done a good job on that front.

While the Panthers have always had a reputation for promoting from within, two years of negatives will probably call for new, pedigreed blood.

Whether a “defensive minded” head coach will get the call – based on the last two years of getting undressed regularly – as a deciding factor is iffy, although a strong defensive coordinator to replace Eric Washington is a 99% certainty. Sticking with the 3-4 or going back to the 4-3 is not the #1 question right now, with a small thanks for not being as pitiful on the pass rush as last year.

College coaches don’t have a great track record in the pros, Pete Carroll of the Seahawks being an obvious exception, and Chip Kelly, who nearly wrecked the Eagles before Doug Pederson took the reins and led them to a Super Bowl win, being the more normal result.

 2020 will be turn the page time

Charlotte was thrilled when its first professional sports franchise, the Hornets, came to town because it proved the city was major league. They bought PSLs (personal seating licenses) to build the football stadium when they gained an NFL franchise in 1993, the first time that route was utilized in the sports world, and gladly (??) chipped in major tax dollars to help refurbish it a couple years ago.

Charlotte now has about every pro sport covered, with the Knights (baseball), Checkers (AHL champs in 2018 season), Hornets, and Panthers. There’s also the historic enthusiasm for the college programs, which now includes the UNCC 49ers (7-6) after the first trip to a bowl game and taking their lumps as a newbie D-1 entrant for five years. The Tobacco Road hoops schools, Wake Forest, South Carolina’s Gamecocks, and of course, Clemson football, all have a dedicated following.

Keep wearing your Olsen, Newton, Kuechly, and McCaffrey jerseys proudly, even if Olsen decides he’s had enough after 2019. Cleveland (6-10) made only marginal progress in two years with Baker Mayfield despite a lot of talking, but count on Mr. Tepper not taking a back seat to anyone on getting results. He’s not Santa Claus, but he’ll deliver sooner than that merry old gent.

And if you want to keep working the beads for McCaffrey’s good health, that’s not a problem either.

 

 

 

 

Christmas Thoughts for Panthers 2019 are a mixed bag for ‘fruitcake’ 5-9

Would Christian McCaffrey tell you, “Honestly, this ugly sweater is going right to the bottom of any drawer I can find space,” if you’d gifted him so? Doubtful, but there’s no reason to believe he’s doing anything less than giving each game his best effort. As a team, there’s also no reason to believe otherwise, even if the defense was sliced and diced by Seattle, dropping the Panthers to 5-9.

Fruitcake season? Just because you hear someone say “It’s not that bad” doesn’t mean you want any more of it. (Gonna have to use that one again…)

Everyone will point to McCaffrey as a bright point in a sub-par season, but holy moley! DJ Moore has 86 catches for 1,174 (4 TD) in his second year. Nobody is “happy” with six straight losses, and yes, eyes goes naturally to Kyle Allen’s 15 INTs (and 3,027) yards as a replacement for Cam Newton after two games .

It wouldn’t be any glaring sign of giving up if 3rd round pick Will Grier got a chance at QB the last two games.

Its pretty certain the Panthers have had a look at Allen after twelve games. Rookie name of Gardner Minshaw II did fine in Jax’ville, its not like they’re clearing the bench to give everyone a couple plays to consider over the winter, but a time when Panther fans will hear about LOTS of changes.

KEY PLAYERS

Doesn’t everyone have a favorite nephew, whose exploits you like to remind others about? McCaffrey is obviously as productive as anyone you can think of, and if he gets 186 yards receiving the next two games, “The Legend-Weapon that is Cee Mac” will be firmly anchored.

Like the kid who demands Santa’s “sled” in the commercial, Dad saying, “He was pretty good this year,” is very legitimate. C-Mac needs those 186 yards to hit 1,000/1,000 level, so I hope that item gets wrapped up real nice and arrives, FedEx or whatever. You’ve heard only two guys have done that, so expect some serious effort to deny him.

Speaking of favorites, congratulations to Drew Brees, a GOAT of GOATS. *That* is a team needing one LESS maximum negative a play in the clutch at some point, but they’ll play an extra inspirational bit harder for that/Drew’s championship this year. Topper on the tree stuff.

Most would agree the O-line has done its bit. Despite constant churn at positions with injuries, McCaffrey doesn’t get all those yards himself. Allen does hold onto the ball at times, so while the line has given up quite a few sacks, eliminating throwing errors (one hopes), although his mistakes, including fumbles, have clearly hurt offensive production.

Curtis Samuel got some different looks in the Seattle game, and using him as a runner like they do with Moore is always intriguing, because he’s a bolt coming at defenders. If he continues to learn how to evade, he could become a devastating slot receiver. Whether Ian Thomas is able to take the tight end job after an Olsen retirement is open to question.

Joey Slye has made seven 50-yard plus field goals this year, but he also missed some kicks that cost games. Overall, do you return cheap gifts and maybe stick with a higher priced version, like a $17 million kicker? Ahhhh! Something has gotten into the egg nog…

The Newton question is the big package hidden in the closet. He may have everyone’s good thoughts for recovery, the question is whether his injury and style – as a passer, all he has is a fastball – and price tag work for 2020.

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Panther fans won’t be sure what they’re getting for 2020, but ‘D’ will need to look less undressed.

The Turner offense certainly put certain players (Moore, McCaffrey) on a very strong path, just like it was designed to, and with a relative newbie at the controls to boot. Newton was +10 pts. over his career passing percentage last year before the shoulder really crimped his production, is he really-really going to be “okay” (you know the commercial) when games count again?

If someone doesn’t pay for Allen to attend some serious camp committed to cutting down his turnovers (13 fumbles), its because he’s getting that proverbial hunk of coal on the way out.

Yes, there needs to be something small but appreciable in the “Running back, besides Christian M.” under the tree for Panther fans to rest assured he won’t be toast in two more years.

DEFENSE WAS LIT UP LIKE CHRISTMAS TREE

If Mr. Tepper keeps Eric Washington as Defensive Coordinator after the way the front was repeatedly gouged for yardage all year, it would be a massive surprise. While the sack total is back up to historical levels, and Kuechly is #3 in the league with 131 tackles (17 against Seattle), Chris Carson went for 133 yards and 2 TDs last week.

Stats: The Panthers have given up 386 points (27.6 ppg) thus far, ahead of only Miami20181223_220242 (29.6 ppg). Pitiful Cincinnati (325, 23.2) was #22: Cleveland and Indy were middle of the pack (311 pts/22.2 ppg); New England (157, 11.2 ppg leads the league).

In 2018, the Panthers started giving up 100 yard rushers regularly, and it hasn’t stopped. It was suggested that opposing QBs didn’t mind throwing against their secondary either, and an improved rush didn’t lessen effectiveness going long. Whether the 3-4 alignment or standard 4-3 is better will require examining the potential of 2nd, 3rd year players like Brian Burns and Marquis Haynes.

Eric Reed was every bit the hitter they wanted at safety and run support, but a lot of people (not just Falcons, Saints; Jax had a receiver get 2-60 yard gains out of 383 total v. Panthers) seemed to be running free far too often. Give Dante Jackson credit for “make up speed” and no lack of confidence, but even when he gets there, people are still making catches. With expectations that he will blossom into the A-1 cover guy Panthers obviously need in 2020, lets hope the Big Boy pants under the tree fit right, or he acquires ‘sticky’ vs. anything figgy by next season.

Shaq Thompson is the speed linebacker many expected him to be with more playing time, but Dontari Poe doesn’t appear to  be a run stopper by any $9 million definition, and I didn’t hear Butler’s name often, that probably can’t stand either. Mario Addison might be trade bait after another decline in sacks.

While Fewell got the nod for interim coach, as the coach of secondary, he might not be around for New Years either.

If some Panther stockings are still hung by the chimney with care after New Year’s, look for when “Bonus $$ for on roster – (X date)” about decision time. James Bradbury’s stocking has something in it, hopefully a situation he can share with Ross Cockrell, who had a quietly good year after a broken leg kept him out all of 2018. Most probably its just a thank you for keeping things respectable with most receivers.

Nobody wants to see Greg Olsen ride off into the sunset (with or without a Man of Year award), it will be up to him and family to decide whether 2019 was enough.

Philosophically and realistically speaking, its going to be an uncomfortable winter for Panther fans. Mr. Tepper has big plans for his soccer franchise, but his NFL franchise will need considerable tending too.

 

Almost-Great finale in Green Bay sets the flag for rest of Panthers season

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Can the Panthers O-line keep McCaffrey rolling and the Falcon rush off Allen better than Saints did for Brees? Will the defense get off the field instead of giving up chunks of yardage?

Here’s betting that Greg VanRoten attempting to sling McCaffrey across the goal-line, swirling snow and frozen tundra overtones to the max, becomes a tee shirt that sells millions. ‘Almost-Great’ in a 24-16 loss kind of covers it, moral victories don’t move the possibility needle on getting into the playoffs.

Kyle Allen earned his spurs (28/43, 307 yds., TD/INT), slinging it as much as necessary, including that 18-yard throw to Olsen in the snowstorm. That counts for experience, especially knowing Cam won’t be back this year.

One pick and his fumble aside, Allen’s distribution is still what the Norv Turner offense is supposed to look like. Color commentator Troy Aikman said that was the focus 25 years ago when he was at the controls in Dallas, its still the standard for Allen. Yes, that’s the DJ Moore that is becoming a difference maker (9 catches/120 yds.) from anywhere on the field, and does anybody else frown when announcers in other games state, “He’s the best running back in the league right now,” and it’s not Cee Mack juking someone bad?

The naysayers will see a 5-4 record for the Panthers,  Rivera will still go with playing them one at a time, even if he admits they got great effort from everyone. Yes, after missing an earlier two-point conversion, the Panthers needed to get that last yard from McCaffrey AND a two-pointer to even tie and go to overtime.  He’s going to get more chances, so will the Panthers. There’s still room on the wagon for believers.

The offensive line continues to be interchangeable and effective, both in pass blocking and giving McCaffrey seams to work through. They’ve given up 20 sacks (seven against 49ers), but Allen doesn’t seem fazed by three against the Packers. He’s an NFL starting QB, he knows what a top-flight pass rush looks like, but we’ve seen him throw well with people all around him. He looks ready to come out of the “game managing” category.

Nobody is saying the Panthers offensive or defensive lines blinked at Green Bay’s power. Gerald McCoy busting through that last play of the first half with the Packers a yard from scoring at the end of a LONG drive, that was a character stand. Yes, some gashing up to that point, but zero points in the clutch, it wasn’t a mistake. That Panthers pushed it 82 and 88 yards on last two drives, that’s not just luck.

Okay, Troy Aikman kept reminding everyone that, except for the pass rush, the Panthers defense has been getting gashed by *everyone* this year.

Rodgers was 17/29 for 233 yards and no touchdowns. How many defensive coordinators would take that line against Green Bay? Despite his 7/118 yard game receiving, DeVonte Adams didn’t score either. When we keep seeing the sort of runs that make long drives possible, like Aaron Jones 13/93 and 3 TDS, and Adams seemingly going wherever he wanted to, that is some cause for Panther concern. The Falcons have some pass catchers this coming week, and Drew Brees, despite a sub-par return game, has some personnel in New Orleans to throw to after that.

There were an awful lot of single tackle stats from the front seven, even Luke Kuechly, to say anyone should think things are okay though. Alvin Kamara is waiting in the Superdome, getting him on the ground will be an important factor. Reid has been good about coming up to make tackles from safety, Ross Cockrell and Tre Boston are steady, Donte Jackson has make up speed, and he’s needed it more than he should in catching people.

This is what being a fan is about, right?

Even with the knowledge Cam’s season is over after being put on injured reserve, there is more than just a good attitude among the Panther faithful after this game. The team was 6-2 this time last year, and of course, there was that seven game skid after the Steelers debacle. While McCaffrey had a statistically great year, going from 11-5 to 7-9 tested everyone’s concern.

Without being a Homer in cheering for losses, the next two weeks will be division games against the Falcons and Saints. Matt Ryan isn’t usually the QB who beats you running around (last year, oh my!), so lets see how tough the Panthers pass rush is at home. Games in the Superdome with Brees are always tough, but half the division games are at the other guys place.  Panthers lost to Saints three times last year, its time to do better.

For those watching the 1,000/1,000 stats on McCaffrey, its 165 carries for 881 yards and 10 TDs rushing.  For all the checkdown passes he caught last year (107 overall), its possible that Allen finding receivers downfield – Olsen was 8/98 yards, Curtis Samuel 4/35 and a TD, Jarius Wright, 1/21 yards – are probably affecting his total of 48/396 yards, three touchdowns in 2019.

We all got to watch a game that was worth talking about at work today. Right now, take the loss – and very definitely the experience – and move on.

McCaffrey goes long on 84-yarder v. Jags, Panthers defense stops hot Minshaw at end

This is the same view Jaguars got of C-MC (cee-mack) on Panthers team record 84-yard run. Even Mr. Modesty checked himself on the big scoreboard.

While my keyboard time usually involves more content creation and long-form informational blogging recently, I’m still a sportswriter-fan who is thrilled at how the local Panthers are handling matters. Quarterback Kyle Allen has gone 3-0 since Cam Newton’s foot injury turned out to be more of a real problem, and the 34-27 win over Jacksonville was nothing but positive on many fronts.

Hey, you all had the TV on by the time McCaffrey flipped over two Jacksonville defenders into the end zone for a TD at the end of Panthers first drive, right? And you *KNEW* the linebacker who wound up on him in the slot was toast as soon as McCaffrey planted to cut inside, and scored on an 18-yard reception, right?

On an afternoon when McCaffrey crushed the concept of running back (‘weapon’ works, might be un-PC though), and looked *Good!* holding his form all the way on an 84-yard lightening bolt  run – even Mr. Modesty looked at the big board – it was a gratifying, all around good team win.

At some point in the future, the Panthers are going to want to put a statue of Christian McCaffrey on the stadium grounds, just don’t expect him to pose for it.  Clearly not the man’s style, although he’s the High Achiever type, and recognition comes with that.

Along that line, congratulations to the four gentlemen inducted into the Hall of Honor: Tight end Wesley Walls,  offensive tackle Jordon Gross, the quarterback that took the Panthers to their first Super Bowl, Jake Delhomme, and the epitome of effort,  wide receiver Steve Smith, Sr.

Smaller congrats to Coach Ron Rivera, whose 74 victories with the Panthers makes him the franchise’s winning-est coach.

Charlotte fans still in the upper decks to witness it

Without getting wild ‘n crazy over 3-2, it was a satisfying victory over the Jaguars, who came into the NFL in 1995, same as the Panthers. Watching the entire game, on an optimal Carolina afternoon without massive heat, the Panthers always seemed to be in control, although Jag QB Gardner Minchaw II and a couple other Jags had pretty strong days too.

If you appreciate what Kyle Allen has done in managing the team to three victories, imagine how they feel in Jacksonville with Nick Foles going down. Minchaw hung a 26/34 (76%), 374 yards, two touchdown day on the board against what had been Panthers #1 ranked defense against the pass (Panthers had two sacks). He also hit DJ Chark (8/164 yards, 2 TD) for three gainers of over 30 yards, had six scrambles for 66 yards, and there was still a possibility – because Joey Slye missed a PAT – for the Jaguars until the chaos of three ‘final’ plays.

Kuechly batting the ball down was the end of a long afternoon for the Panthers, although I’d be willing to acknowledge Minchaw’s pyrotechnics on his ability to evade a strong pass rush than any lack of effort up front.

On that item, I’m willing to forget 2018, when Eric Washington’s front seven simply didn’t get to QBs, and the defense was repeatedly torched along the way. The rush had an excellent game against the Texans Deshaun Watson (which he took out on Atlanta 53-32). Rookie LB Brian Burns had an outstanding strip-sack/touchdown run Sunday, and Ross Cockrell, who didn’t play last year after a broken leg in training camp, is showing up regularly (6 tackles) in the secondary.

Let’s admit that McCaffrey’s shot-from-a-cannon 84-yarder looked faster for longer than Fornette’s 49-yarder, but seeing Fornette outrun Luke Keuchly’s angle to the edge and then motor away, that’s what 4.4 speed looks like. For those who still worry about Cee-Mack getting worn out/overused, the way he grinds out 3-4 yard carries is why those extra ten pounds of muscle this year count, and he sure didn’t LOOK any slower, did he?

Olsen didn’t draw any throws, and that’s never really acceptable in my book. Olsen has always been a favorite receiver for Newton, and Allen did find him twice in that first four touchdown game though. The best explanation is that Olsen is part of that core leadership (Thomas Davis out, Gerald McCoy in) the Panthers benefit from. He’s all about TEAM, and if extra blocking against the Jags pretty good defensive rush was necessary to keep #7 clean, he knows his number isn’t being called for a reason.

It has never seemed like without Newton all was lost, like last year.

This coming Sunday the Panthers play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in London, UK, then have a bye week before going to San Francisco, with a chance to be 6-2 again at mid-point of the season if they beat the Titans to begin November. A win vs. Bucs might not seal them in cellar, because Atlanta isn’t doing so hot. The Saints? Ten wins? Newton ready after the bye?

“Believing” already isn’t how things roll in Charlotte

There have been up-down years in Charlotte, even two Super Bowl trips, but for 25 years as a franchise here in “The Buckle on the Bible Belt,” every good year has been followed by misery for the Panthers. There’s a collective holding back that only disappears at times like that Thanksgiving game against Dallas to go 11-0 in 2015. That’s when a lot of people voiced the same thing, about finally believing it was okay to think they could be THAT good.

I’m of the belief that this is 25th anniversary version is actually much better than the 2018 team, and not just pickin’ at hearts early and then going belly-up, like those seven losses in a row after 6-2 start.

The offensive line looks to be righteous – the Panthers had 285 yards rushing, and when your boy leads the league, that’s something to hang your hat on. Reggie Bonnafon’s five carries for 80 yards, including a 59-yard TD run, meant there was no need to bring McCaffrey back into the game after a minor injury in the 4th quarter.

Even if Allen has now been sacked just under three times a game, yes, eat the ball young man! (still 0 INTs this year).  507 yards of Jaguar’s offense aside, every aspect is MUCH better than Panthers 2018, certainly the pass rush has a restored sense of pride.

If the question comes up about what HASN’T McCaffrey done for this team, he doesn’t sell popcorn at halftime as they sometimes say, and he failed to convert a pair of short 4th down runs – one of which might have won the Bucs game.

Very few people will remember that, but for Mr. McCaffrey, that’s the extra bit of fire you might not see along with those great guns of his. Figuring out how much further to a 1,000-1,000 rushing/receiving season is legit.